- - College Football Playoff projections: It's going to be key to be a top-6 seed in 2025

Nick BrombergNovember 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM

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The most intriguing seeding races in the College Football Playoff may not surround who gets the four first-round byes but rather who gets seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

Unlike last year, the top four teams in the final set of rankings will receive byes in the first round no matter if they win their conference or not. And, at the moment, it seems pretty clear that the Big Ten will get two of those byes and the SEC will get the other two.

After the top four, the race could get really fascinating. With no American Conference team ranked in the first set of CFP rankings and no ACC team ranked in the top 12, those two conferences will likely occupy the No. 11 and No. 12 seeds in this year’s bracket.

If you’re the No. 5 seed, you could end up playing a team outside the top 20. If you’re the No. 8 seed, you’re playing the team directly below you in the rankings.

That could be a big deal at the end of the season. Seeds Nos. 9 and 10 are likely to come from the Big Ten and SEC. While Texas Tech looks like a team capable of playing with anyone, a home game against a team like South Florida is a different proposition than one against Notre Dame.

Here’s our latest look at what we think the bracket could look like in December. Our hopes of a 9-3 SEC chaos scenario are officially toast, so we’ve taken Texas out of the bracket. The Longhorns will be back in if they beat Georgia in Week 12.

No. 1 Ohio State (9-0, projected Big Ten champion)

The Buckeyes are so, so consistent. Ohio State has scored 34 points in three of its last four games, 34 or more in five straight games and hasn’t given up more than 16 points in any of those games.

The run shouldn’t end anytime soon. The Buckeyes are home against a UCLA team that’s come back down to earth in Week 12 and then host Rutgers before visiting Michigan to end the season. It’s easy to say that Ohio State hasn’t been tested since Week 1 and yes, the Buckeyes’ schedule has turned out to be pretty soft, but Ohio State is also the one making it look very easy.

No. 2 Indiana (10-0, at-large)

We are rolling toward two unbeaten teams in the Big Ten title game unless Michigan beats the Buckeyes in Week 14. The Hoosiers have games against Wisconsin and Purdue remaining. They have a combined Big Ten record of 1-12 and that would be 0-13 if Wisconsin hadn’t upset Washington at home on Saturday.

Yes, Indiana escaped against Penn State on Saturday, but the final drive immediately became iconic in Indiana football history and Omar Cooper Jr.’s catch is going to be replayed over and over again as the rest of the season goes on.

No. 3 Alabama (8-1, projected SEC champion)

The Alabama-LSU rivalry has become very, very lopsided. The Crimson Tide have won 13 of the last 15 games in the series and have outscored the Tigers by 54 points over the last three games since LSU scored a 32-21 overtime win in Brian Kelly’s first season with the Tigers.

Now Kelly is the former coach of LSU and Alabama is rolling towards another SEC title game appearance. If the Tide do make it to Atlanta, it’ll be the first time since 2002 that they’ve been in the SEC championship game without Nick Saban on the sideline.

No. 4 Texas A&M (9-0, at-large)

Texas A&M looks like a team that is far better positioned to make the SEC title game than it was a season ago. The Aggies lost three of their last four games to miss out on a conference title shot in 2024. This year, all A&M may need to do is beat one of South Carolina or Texas. The latter could be way harder than the former, but a win over South Carolina in Week 12 could take some pressure off that Black Friday rivalry game.

Here's what the projected College Football Playoff picture looks like. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)No. 12 South Florida (7-2, projected American champion) at No. 5 Georgia (8-1, at-large)

USF should be ranked in the committee’s top 25 on Tuesday after the drubbing it put on UTSA at home. The Bulls visit Navy on Saturday in a key game in the AAC race before very winnable contests against UAB and Rice to close out the season. USF is fifth in the country in scoring with 42 points per game.

Georgia did a fantastic job of avoiding a trap game in Starkville with a 41-21 victory. Nate Frazier had 12 carries for 181 yards and Gunner Stockton threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns. Stockton isn’t going to win the Heisman. But he’s on pace to end up as a top-three quarterback in the SEC if he isn’t there already.

No. 11 Georgia Tech (8-1, projected ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (9-1, at-large)

Georgia Tech is back in our bracket after the ACC’s disastrous weekend. The Yellow Jackets should feel fortunate they were off as many of the league’s top teams that did play — Virginia, Louisville and Duke — all lost. Georgia Tech’s game on Nov. 22 vs. Pitt could end up being for a spot in the ACC title game. Or even a preview of what the ACC title game will be in December.

Ole Miss had a November cupcake against The Citadel on Saturday.

No. 10 Vanderbilt (8-2, at-large) No. 7 Texas Tech (8-1, projected Big 12 champion)

Yes, Vanderbilt has a legitimate playoff path. The Commodores needed overtime to beat Auburn but BYU’s loss to Texas Tech sets up a way for Vanderbilt to get into the playoff at 10-2 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee.

The Red Raiders, meanwhile, have games against UCF and West Virginia to end the season. We can start to pencil them into the Big 12 title game. And a loss or two by teams ahead of them in the rankings will get the Red Raiders in what could be a very important top six.

No. 9 Notre Dame (7-2, at-large) at No. 8 Oregon (8-1, at-large)

We don’t think Notre Dame will be out of the playoff bracket the rest of the season unless they lose. The Irish easily took down Navy and a trip to Pitt in Week 12 will bring out ESPN’s “College GameDay.” After Pitt, Notre Dame plays Syracuse and Stanford. It’s hard to see how anyone ousts the Irish from the playoff with a 3-0 finish even if you want to quibble with their schedule.

The Ducks deserve more credit for winning their game against Iowa without their top four receivers. Evan Stewart has been out all season, Dakorien Moore was injured in practice this week, Kenyon Sadiq suited up but didn’t play, and Gary Bryant Jr. got injured while making his only catch of the game. However, we think a one-loss Big 12 champion in Texas Tech could jump an 11-1 Oregon team at the end of the season.

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Source: “AOL Sports”